Hello Traders, hope your weekend was great. We had lots of sunshine where I live, so that was great.
We are about half way the month of June… so today we are going to take a good look what else we can expect in the remaining 2 weeks of June.
Besides the usual EURUSD analysis, we will also review the GBPUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD. Please make sure to write down your own analysis in the comment section below. This is a very important process to becoming a better Forex trader.
The month of June has been quite bullish for the EURUSD, so far. As anticipated in earlier analysis:
1) the month of May could not see a break of April’s monthly low
2) the inside candle of May plus bullish engulfing monthly candle of April-March received upside follow through in the first two weeks of June
This indeed proved to be true and the consequence has been a sturdy upside with two bullish weekly candles. I hope that the analysis helped you catch some pips to the upside. I know that some of the readers used the million dollar strategy for EURUSD profit 2 weeks ago, which is great.
Uptrend monthly chart
An important realization is that if this month closes above the 1.2740 price level, then the monthly chart will have a higher low. The monthly chart will be then building an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows (black boxes).
Major resistance levels
In this uptrend we can identify resistance levels on the month and week chart.
1) The next major resistance levels on the MONTH chart are:
- the 1.370 top
- the 618 Fibonacci at 1.3820
- the 786 Fibonacci retracement at 1.4320 (red boxes).
These resistance spots could send the currency back lower, maybe all the way to the 618 retracement Fib and the -0.272 target.
2) The next major resistance levels on the WEEK chart are also the 618, 786 Fibs.
Also on the weekly chart I do not anticipate any particular dangers for the EURUSD bulls and remain bullish, just as the last few weeks.
Here are the key factors:
1) Last week’s candle had a higher high and higher low
2) Last week’s candle close was quite close near the high, which signals that the bulls remained in control till the end of the trading session. Read more about price action here.
Switch of gears
I consider any move down this or next week as a retracement. For me the key level is last week’s low at 1.3175. A break of the weekly low would the only reason for me to change my current bullish vision.
Otherwise I am expecting a continuation of the uptrend and I am anticipating a break of last week’s high. I am not sure if that will necessarily happen this week.
- The higher high could happen this week
- But also next week and then this week will be an inside candle with higher low, but lower high
Lower time frames
The EURUSD is building a wedge at the current top. It will be interesting to see what scenario plays out:
1) a continuation break to the upside
2) a counter trend break to the downside
I am only interested in the upside break OR a bounce off of the support Fibs (green box).
My number 1 / main expectation is a 3 wave correction to the down side back to the 618 / 786 week or retracement of the weekly candle followed by a continuation to the upside for uptrend continuation. The -0.272 target is at 1.3450 and the -0.618 at 1.3520.
The Cable currency is almost in an identical spot as the EURUSD.
The GBPUSD is showing very similar characteristics:
1) the weekly chart is showing bullish weekly candle sticks.
2) I consider any downside a retracement, unless the weekly low of 1.5490 breaks.
3) Next resistance areas are 1.5820 – 1.5850 tops and bottoms
4) 786 Fibonacci retracement at 1.60
The AUDUSD has some big news: it actually posted a bullish weekly candle! It was a long while back since the last strong bullish weekly candle: beginning of April to be exact.
The bullish weekly candle could certainly translate into more upside continuation and the down trend bears should be cautious of potential upside momentum.
Also, if we careful study the 4 hour chart, there is a potential of a 5 wave impulsive having been completed.
However, for me, the 0.9660 and 0.98 daily tops are definitely major resistance levels which the currency needs to crack before I turn long-term bullish.
Also, this move up could still be part of a larger wave 4, which would send the AUDUSD continue its down side around the 382 Fib.
The Yen had a very bearish weekly candle last week, signaling lots of downside momentum.
The UJ made a very fast 1000 pip correction since it topped out at 103.70 after making a rising wedge formation. Read here my article dating back from that period of time where I warn for a rising wedge formation, albeit still expecting one more push up. The upside, however, certainly proved to be toast once that rising wedge broke….
The USDJPY could be back at a major weekly support level. The area between 90 and 93.50 could provide a lot of potential support.
Resistance should definitely be present anywhere around the weekly high and lower.
Thanks for your reading and sharing this article!!!!
Wish you Good Trading!!
Latest posts by Chris Svorcik (see all)
- The Number One Handbook on Trend Lines in Forex Part 4 - October 19, 2014
- Drawing Trend Lines on 2 Forex Pairs: Setups You Don’t Want to Miss - October 16, 2014
- Warning: Drama and Fireworks Ahead with EURJPY and USDCAD Breakout - October 15, 2014
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