Gbp/Usd: Triple Top

I just wanted to make a quick post announcing this triple top formation which you can trade to if there is a break to the upside. This could be a good opportunity so watch for it. If I take a trade on this pair I will post it on twitter so that you can learn more about how I am trading.

Here is a chart :

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  • Masland

    Appears you may be right, Darryl. Price movement going your way.

  • Dbrown_821

    Daryl, this was the 'wick heard around the world' my friend. Your stops were probably not too tight, its just that it wicked pasted the 1.5228 level which was a major res line not seen since early May. Myself, as well as some very successful veteran traders had buy stops placed well past the 1.5228 level. We all got 'wicked and stopped' or should I say stomped. It happens. That's one of those losses that amount of planning or analyzing can prevent. You just have to chalk it up to a business expense. The conspiracy theorist in me suspects that the market makers collectively and purposely pumped price to take out those stops, but that's a whole different topic. I do feel that cable will continue its push into the 1.53's as dollar stays below 84 with support at 80.6.

  • Darryl

    Didn't see my stop as being very tight, guess it was. Stop was @ 1.5240, 13 pips higher than the highs for the last 5 days. Can anyone guess where price went to? I would have needed a stop @ 1.5244 to miss the axe. Oooooops!

  • Jvsantoss

    couldn't u also short as with a tight stop, Like Darraly analysis better for risk reward ratio

  • Clasgolf

    Guys,Watch out for this gbp its volatile.Im sitting out till after the rates are out.

  • http://twitter.com/khangi61 Nisar Ali

    Last 4 days of consolidation made it very hard for the prices to break strong resistance area, but prices did crack the resistance and snap back very quickly (false break out). however keeping in mind the dollar index iam thinking of going long if the prices break out on H1 chart and stayed above for couple of sessions.which seems very unlikely.

  • Cyprustrader

    I currently favour the upside whilst risk sentiment continues to hold, check out those Yen crosses and indices. Half an eye on thoses would be prudent as a sharp snap back to risk aversion could see cable move down with it.

  • Darryl

    Wow, thanks for pointing that out Stephen.

  • Darryl

    Hi Db, your point is well taken and very valid. I still like the odds (more precisely risk/reward ratio). My stop is 34 pips. I see the market has been consolidating for 5 days in a 150 pip range. No where, during this rise (4h charts) do the candles If this is the beginning of a reversal, I like my position. If not, a small risk is well within my “Safe Loss” guidelines.
    Thanks for replying. The more I form my thoughts into print, the more I learn. 8^}

  • Stephenbajona1

    Thanks Casey-Just beware of the 4 red-tagged events out of the UK in the morning.

  • Dbrown_821

    Hi Darryl, don't go against the trend. Cable is in a 5 week trend to the upside. The 1.52 mark is forming a text book bull flag formation plus the triple top against that level could the powder we're looking for to the upside. Keep in mind the dollar index is current below 84 and has been trending down regardless of today's pop in the dow and s&p. If dollar weakness continues and I believe there's reason it wouldn't, we should see cable pop. My charts show 1.5227 as the major res level. Once that's broken, it should be off to the races to the round number of 1.53. But that's just my two pips worth:)

  • Darryl

    Thanks for all the updates/analysis Casey. I do, however, read this as just the opposite. 3 consecutive days price has been repelled at the 1.5227 level. On the daily price hit a 78% retrace of a 10 week downward move. My worst case look at this pair looks to have a 300 pip move down. A potential of 1000 or more. I'm in a small trade short now and will increase if downward move establishes itself. My stop is @ 1.5240. Stochastics on 1h, 4h, daily & weekly are all overbought.
    If price does go north of my stop, your analysis is correct. Meanwhile, if I didn't trade what I described here, I would not be following my basic plan.