Welcome Forex Traders to today’s free Forex training!
We will be covering some great charts today!
EURUSD, AUDUSD, EURGBP, AND USDCHF are on the menu today.
For those of you who are interested in the GBPUSD analysis and more in-depth analysis on EURUSD and AUDUSD, I would like to refer you to Thursday’s article on “Forex Compass Outlook Analysis.”
The big question is of course: “what will happen with the USD?” What is your opinion? Write down your expectations down below in the comments section!
Nothing much has changed regarding our EURUSD… Here is a quick summary when looking at the weekly chart
a) Chart pattern (black trend lines): it is still stuck in the bigger weekly wedge…
b) Candle sticks: last week was actually a bullish weekly candle which could be a first warning signal for some upside potential;
c) Fibs: the currency is bouncing off two 500 Fibs. One from down to up leg (1.2030 to 1.37) and one from the up to down leg (1.37 to 1.2820);
d) Trend lines (purple): the green trend lines represent the bigger weekly wedge;
e) EW analysis: has the currency finished a wave E of wave B at 1.3710 and is now making a wave C to the downside OR is it making a wave B of wave E of wave B;
f) Support and resistance (red and green): the major support and resistance lines on the EURUSD are, among others, the following:
- 1.30 (last week’s high)
- 1.3070 (618 Fib of down move)
- 1.3250 (most recent top)
- 1.3710 (top)
- 1.2790-1.2815 (weekly low)
- 1.2750 (recent bottom)
- 1.2660 (bigger bottom)
- 1.24 (786 Fib)
- 1.2050 (weekly bottom)
The AUDUSD has been going full force to the downside ever since the end of March, but the real acceleration came in the last three weeks. In bearish weekly candles the currency dropped a whopping 700 pips from 1.03 to 0.96 (read this article for my prediction I made on April the 18th about the upcoming fall).
So far the currency has shown very little signs of turning back up. The AUDUSD did slightly stall at the weekly support at 0.96… however considering the massive momentum to the downside the likelihood of downside continuation is very high.
I myself will be only looking for downside opportunities. The best possibilities for (re)joining the AUDUSD downside is either:
a) When the currency corrects itself back to the major resistance levels at 0.9750 / 0.99 / 1.000;
b) Or when the currency break the 0.9590 bottom.
Downside continuation should not run into major problems until the currency bumps into these levels:
1) The -0.272 target at 0.9230
2) The bigger 382 retracement Fib on the monthly chart at 0.9140;
3) The bigger -0.272 target at 0.8930;
4) The -0.618 target at 0.88.
Hope you are enjoying this free Forex “training”! Let us move on with the EURGBP.
In short, we can see that the EG has remained above the bigger upside trend line (purple) and broken the smaller downside corrective trend line (dark red). Read here more about the EURGBP “Who Finishes Second in Forex?” for a detailed report.
1) The chance seems now pretty high that the currency will continue back up, at minimum up towards the upper trend line of the huge weekly tend channel (black trend channel).
2) Once the trend channel and top (red) resistance line are broken, then we can expect a continuation to the 0.-272 target at 0.9050 and the -0.618 target at 0.9340.
3) If the currency respects the black trend channel and moves back down and breaks the uptrend channel (purple) and key weekly bottom (green), then we can look for downside again.
As you can see I am incorporating different tools of analysis in each article and currency pair so that each Forex trader, no matter what tools you use, can learn something from how I apply these technical analysis tools in real live charts. I truly believe that this is the best method of Forex training.
Anyhow, back to the Swissy!
The most interesting aspect I wanted to point out to you was the huge weekly reversal candle. Of course a week candle is very important, but even weekly candles are only a part of a higher trend. Recently the bigger trend seemed to have been USD strength. And that is why I personally did not expect such a huge bearish weekly candle at this moment (although my biased on the EURUSD is further consolidation, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD might seem some correction before downside).
Will does turn out to be a reversal candle?
Or will this candle be a candle half way the uptrend and will the USDCHF push to higher grounds?
Key resistance levels are:
A) Last week’s high at 0.9840 à a break of the high would confirm the upside potential of the Swissy currency pair;
B) The bigger top at 0.9970.
Key support levels are:
A) Last week’s low at 0.9590;
B) The major weekly top at 0.9570;
C) The major daily top at 0.95.
Any continuation to the upside either at the support levels or up break of the tops would be an up trend continuation and would usually speaking see the USDCHF move to hit the next weekly -0.618 target and the 786 weekly retracement Fib at at 1.07.
As you can see, the previous time the currency neatly stalled at the 500 weekly retracement Fib and at the 618 weekly retracement Fib & 0.272 target. The next target confluence is the -0.618 & 786.
Thank you so much for reading. Make sure to leave a comment down below what you think will happen with the USD!!
Hope you enjoyed this free forex training and looking forward to seeing you tomorrow.
Latest posts by Chris Svorcik (see all)
- The Number One Handbook on Trend Lines in Forex Part 4 - October 19, 2014
- Drawing Trend Lines on 2 Forex Pairs: Setups You Don’t Want to Miss - October 16, 2014
- Warning: Drama and Fireworks Ahead with EURJPY and USDCAD Breakout - October 15, 2014
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