Spain Races To Avert Banking Crisis As Euro Faces Slide – UK Times

May 30 (IFR) – The UK Sunday Times is reporting that Caja Madrid, Spain’s
second-largest savings bank was this weekend negotiating a merger with five
smaller rivals as part of a desperate government effort to restore confidence in
the faltering economy…

 leads me to believe there’s a lot more to come. It’s been long said that the single currency started off too fast, too big and too soon before any appropriate “testing” was done on it. This, imho, makes the last “sentence” become dramatically clear.

CEBR urges Greece to leave the Euro & default on Debt – UK Times

May 30 (IFR) – The UK Sunday Times is reporting that the Greek government has
been advised by British economists CEBR to leave the euro and default on its 300
BLN EUR debt to save its economy.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a London-based
consultancy, has warned Greek ministers they will be unable to escape their debt
trap without devaluing their own currency to boost exports. The only way this
can happen is if Greece returns to its own currency.
Speaking from Athens Saturday, Doug McWilliams, chief executive of the
CEBR, said: “Leaving the euro would mean the new currency will fall by a minimum
of 15%. But as the national debt is valued in euros, this would raise the debt
from its current level of 120% of GDP to 140% overnight. McWilliams added: “So
part of the package of leaving the euro must be to convert the debt into the new
domestic currency unilaterally.”
According to the Times report, McWilliams called the move “virtually
inevitable” and said other members may follow. “The only question is the
timing,” he said. “The other issue is the extent of contagion. Spain would
probably be forced to follow suit, and probably Portugal and Italy, though the
Italian debt position is less serious. McWilliams added: “Could this be the last
weekend of the single currency? Quite possibly, yes.” —

20:38 24/05/2010
As Casey has his favourite pair (EUR/USD) so I have mine. As a scalper I see the EUR/JPY, with it’s constant volatility, as a veritable cash machine. I look at five time frames altogether with this pair. They are the hourly, 30 minute, 15 minute, 5 minute and 1 minute. Using the different time frames like this is similar to looking at the pair under an ever increasingly powerful microscope. Each shorter time frame is a closer look into the price action as you can appreciate. In order to make a viable trade entry all 5 (or 4 if you don’t use the 30 minute time frame) have to show the same signal. This is where timing comes into play. If one of the 4 or five signals is against the others and you don’t feel comfortable with the entry point, sit back and wait. Timing is everything.
Looking at the Ichimoku analytical set up, we see the Chikou Span giving us a classical downward trend pattern. As I mentioned, the Chikou Span (GREEN) acts as a momentum tool. At, or above the current price as it is here in the daily chart, it’s indicative of the down trend shown. The Kijun-Sen is the base line (RED). In the chart we see the Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen are widely separated with the Tenkan-Sen (BLUE) crossing from below at first then abruptly reversing and crossing from above. Although this is indicative of a down trend, we should look to the MACD which is converging, hopefully at the beginning of a crossover from above as well. Kumo cloud thickness is indicating volatility to come and some resistance.

Right click and open in “new tab” or new page for detail

POSITION            SHORT
PRICE                    112.50 (at the time of this article)
TARGET               109.50
STOP                     113.30

EUR/JPY (All times, unless otherwise stated, are in EST)
The most active days are Weds (20% TM) and Thurs (21% TM)
68% of trends occur between 01:00 and 13:00.
51% TM begins between 05:00 and 13:00

A profitable strategy is useless without discipline.

Many traders end up losing money because they fail to make trades that meet their own criteria.

“Plan the trade and trade the plan” …. Success is impossible without discipline.

A quick look at what I consider the major pairs going into week Sunday 23rd to Friday 28th of May.

Right click summary to enlarge detail in a new tab/window

This is only a guide of what I see. As the great sage Lao Tzu said thousands of years ago, “My own words are not the medicine, but a prescription; not the destination, but a map to help you reach it.”

May all your pips be profitable.

Mike (aka Yankee Clipper)

A profitable strategy is useless without discipline. Many traders end up losing money because they fail to make trades that meet their own criteria.

“Plan the trade and trade the plan” …. Success is impossible without discipline.

 Wow! what was last week all about? One of those times when we really should sit on our hands and (in the words of the late John Lennon) “watch the wheels go round and round… no longer sitting on the Merry-Go-Round” instead of trading.

But could we… with so much news coming out I, for one, just had to make a trade. So I did, I traded what I saw (as I believe many did in the live trading room with Michael) and lo and behold, the market didn’t do what we all thought it would on the last three days of the week. We sort of figured wacky waldo wednesday would be like that and I did indeed sit on my hands (for the best part at least. Being a dyed in the wool scalper, I did get a few pips from my favourite EUR/JPY with all the volatility.) Thursday was a rose between two thorns and I did well.

 Then friday happened… Working with Michael, watching the information he was sharing with us, it seemed sure to be a profitable day. All the signs were there but (as Sophia has mentioned before) Mr. Market had other plans. Devious, pip robbing plans as it turned out. I went short on the EUR/JPY which, according to market trends, news and on the spot analysis of 20, 40 and 200 SMA’s, should have been the right trade. I sat before my screen and watched the pair shoot off into the heavens and stop me out. Ok, not to worry. We all can’t make money all the time. I thought I’d joined the 90 – 95% losers JUST for that trade. I could make it up on my next trade. I began to scalp, buying here, selling there. Entering and exiting trades with nimble footed awareness that this wasn’t an ordinary day of trading. Back in the 5 – 10% of winners.

 Then everything went belly up. The trend turned, it wasn’t going the way I anticipated. The market wasn’t taking notice of the news. Even the “magic” time of 09:50 to 10:10 (EST NY session time) didn’t have the right bearing on the market. It’s supposed to reverse between those times. It didn’t. I watched myself get stopped out time and time again. My emotions started to cloud my thinking. I began chasing pips, getting very aggressive in my trading, making mistakes and losing pips by the bucketful. Instead of the 53 pips up I was from the London session, I was looking at -250 pips. Then I finally stopped trading. Dejected, defeated and thoroughly emotionally drained. NOT a day to take my pips and go to the beach.

 I won’t take up any more of your precious time. Thank you for staying with me this far. The moral of this sad story is quite simple and goes hand in glove with the “scalper’s disclaimer” I always put at the end of my articles. (I should type it individually and not copy and paste it. It will be fresh in my mind at all times then.) You HAVE to have discipline when trading. You have to get a plan/strategy that works for you and you HAVE to plan the trade using your own criteria in accordance with that plan/strategy. The way I see it, trading is similar to a bouncing ball on a chart of numbers. The ball doesn’t ever stop bouncing and the numbers it lands on are the number of pips you win or lose during any particular trade. The trick is to (obviously) get the ball to land on + numbers. What the plan/strategy does for us is to maximise those positive bounces. In this example, the best way to do that is to leave the number alone, wait for the ball to bounce on it. Law of averages alone will do that at least. What I did friday, and many traders do and subsequently fall in the 90 – 95% of losers, is to try and move the number to where we “think” the ball will bounce. That is where I went wrong on friday and I freely admit it.

 Monday (or sunday night if you try the gap trading offered by Tim Black in his fantastic series “Forex Gap Trading Plan – Part 1 – 4“) is another day. We’ve had the weekend to chill, relax and muster our forces for another brilliant week in trading. See you all in the trading room with Sophia (London session) and Michael Storm (NY session).

If you find yourself at a loss as to what to do between training/trading sessions, you are always most welcome to visit my site at Perx Forex. Once you join it’s got plenty to browse through, charts you can use, news and of course chat with either myself or whoever is onsite at the time. There’s also a system, similar to the trading rooms, where I can chat to (up to) 2 people (it’s the free version lol)

 May all your pips be profitable ones.

 Mike Griffiths (aka YankeeClipper)

A profitable strategy is useless without discipline. Many traders end up losing money because they fail to make trades that meet their own criteria.

“Plan the trade and trade the plan” …. Success is impossible without discipline.

I’m looking at this one fairly late on Monday night because

• a) to find a decent pair for my article on Tuesday and
• b) I didn’t do very well today (Monday) with +44 pips scalped then lost 40 pips by holding onto an exotic pair (it’s over now, so I won’t even bother telling you which pair it was lol). So up by +4 pips for the day.

Looking through the Oanda News I saw this pair which, as mentioned below, is heralded for a long position with a target of 0.8745, a total of 170 pips. I entered at 0.8557 which, if it goes the distance (and at the time of writing being 22:00 BST it’s looking strong) will set me nicely not only for the day, but for the week to date (my goal being +60 pips a day). Looking at the 15 Minute and 5 Minute charts with an Ichimoku overlay shows the possibility of an upwardly mobile trend here.

Fifteen Minute Chart

Five Minute Chart

OANDA NEWS AS OF 00:15 BST (18th May 2010)

Long is in play after last week”s massive surge in vol and as daily MACD is about to turn back up for the first time since its Mar 18 sell signal. Stop is below the current and last two sessions lows in the 0.8495 vicinity. Oversold weekly studies have begun to base out as well. Need a daily close above the falling 21-day MA (0.8618) to strengthen the bullish reversal

POSITION LONG

PRICE 0.8575

TARGET 0.8745

STOP 0.8495

EUR/GBP (All times, unless otherwise stated, are in EST)
The most active days are Weds (20% TM) and Thurs (23% TM)
68% of trends occur between 01:00 and 13:00.
52% TM begins between 05:00 and 13:00

A profitable strategy is useless without discipline. Many traders end up losing money because they fail to make trades that meet their own criteria.

“Plan the trade and trade the plan” …. Success is impossible without discipline

Here’s another offering of what (imho) I see as the major currencies, going into the week commencing 17th May 2010. Looking at the past performance, eyeing the news and other bits and pieces. It’s Sunday evening (22:30 BST) and I (personally) am watching EUR/JPY. Looks a little volatile going into start of trade Sunday. I hope this moves up, as I plan, because I went long on Friday night just before close of session. It is looking good at the time of posting…

 Hi everyone. With the Euro in the news by considering Estonia for membership in the zone as of January 1, 2011, I thought I’d take a look at EUR/CHF today.

The Daily chart shows good signs of a downward trend with the Chikou Span above the current price action and moving down. As I mentioned, the Chikou Span is similar to a momentum tool. Tenkan-Sen has crossed over from above and still parallels the Kijun-Sen. This crossover (at 17:00 BST on the 12th) confirms a crossover from above of the MACD at a similar time (it can be seen on the HOURLY chart below). Taking the lead from Michael Storm last night in the trading room, the candles at the current price area are showing long wicks at the top, which Michael says indicates the price getting tired and showing a reversal to the downward trend. It appears (on the 1 hour graph below) that I looked into the future to show the crossover from above of the MACD (oh to be able to look into the future… Hindsight being 20/20 in it’s accuracy lol).

                                    (Click on Graph to expand)

[Strategy:Sell@1.4040] The all time low at 1.4005 is back under pressure and unable to sell a topside failure since the price stalled at 1.4334 on Monday. The price action leaves the daily studies heading south with plenty of room to extend, while the hourlies show mixed signals. Still looking ‘to sell a topside failure or a sustained 1.4000 break.

 All times below are, unless specified, stated in (EST)
EUR/CHF
The most active days for Eur/Chf are Thurs (24% TM) and Fri (21% TM).
On these days 78% of trends occur between 01:00 and 13:00.
35% TM begins at 05:00

 A profitable strategy is useless without discipline.

Many traders end up losing money because they fail to make trades that meet their own criteria.

“Plan the trade and trade the plan” …. Success is impossible without discipline.

Hi again everyone. This is the first article I’ve actually downloaded myself, so if the appearance is not to the professional standard you’re used to then forgive me as I practice with the new software

I’m going to start with another position summary of the way I (imho) see the major currencies heading. It’s a slow start to the month, most of my picks are flat so, for me and my particular style of trading, it’s back to scalping. I’m looking at GBP/USD for a possible investment trade and that will be my next article, since the most active day for that pair is Thursday giving us the most trend activity of 31%

If you click on the chart above it will redirect you to a full size (in focus) page

The Chikou Span sets the stage for this pair. Acting as a momentum
tool, it shows above the current price and heading south. The daily
chart shows nice crossovers in both the Tenkan-Sen (Blue) crossing
the baseline Kijun-Sen (Red) and the MACD confirming.The MACD
continues south and separating nicely. All the current price activity
is below a thin cloud formation indicating low volatility and small
pockets of support.

Eur/USd

Position Summary for EUR/USD
Short
TP 1.2520
SL 1.2830

All times, unless specified, are stated in (EST)
EUR/USD The most active days for Eur/Usd are
Weds (19% Trend Movement), Thurs (24% TM) and Fri(21% TM).
On these days 78% of trends occur between 01:00 and 13:00.
35% TM begins at 05:00

A profitable strategy is useless without discipline. Many traders end up
losing  money because they fail to make trades that meet their own
criteria. “Plan the trade and trade the plan” …. Success is impossible
without discipline.

Aud Usd

Strategy: Buy at 0.8967 (at 16:30 BST)

AUD/USD (All times, unless otherwise stated, are in EST) The most active
days are Thurs (23% TM) and Fri (22% TM) 75% of trends occur between
01:00 and 13:00. 55% TM begins between 05:00 and 13:00

A scalpers Disclaimer
A profitable strategy is useless without discipline
Many traders end up losing money because they fail to make trades that meet their own criteria.
“Plan the trade and trade the plan” …. Success is impossible without discipline.