Hello Forex traders,
The USDJPY is pushing through the yearly high and the UJ bounce or break spot was mentioned in yesterday’s article.
This push up was good for long trade idea mentioned in the trading room and that closed for +150 pips!
Other trades of this week include:
1) EURAUD +210 pips / 1.5 R:R
2) GBPAUD +230 pips / 1.5 R:R
3) AUDUSD+150 pips / 1.7 R:R
4) EURJPY +114 pips / 1.4 R:R
Please write a quick comment down below if you indeed took some of those trades, thanks!
ROLE OF S&R
Support and resistance (S&R) is the key factor in the Forex market.
When price reaches a pre-determined support or resistance level, the trader can then mark this zone as a “bounce or break spot” (more on that later on).
There are various ways how a trader identifies the support and resistance zone (testing the usefulness of their S&R identification is important).
Many elements could turn out to be support and resistance; here is a list with a couple of examples:
1) Tops and bottoms
2) Trend lines
3) Trend channels
5) Fibonacci targets and extensions
6) Chart patterns
The S&R area could be used in various ways:
1) As a target, thereby placing a Take Profit at that level
2) As a filter, thereby purposely not taking a trade setup due to S&R
3) As a trigger and/or entry, thereby taking a potential trade upon the break or bounce
BREAK OR BOUNCE SPOT
This article is geared towards explaining how a Forex trader can trade/approach a bounce or break spot (and is not focused on how the S&R is determined).
Once the Forex trader has identified a bounce or break spot, then the Forex trader has a “line in the sand”. The Forex trader has a clear level which they mark for themselves as crucial.
Why is this important?
– The Forex trader needs to mark certain levels, areas, zones, price zones as important in advanced so that there is clear moment when a decision is/has to be made and all other price movement is filtered out (ignored).
– If a Forex trader does not setup some kind of filter, then the process of trading would become very problematic as all new data would be reviewed with the same importance (creating fear and greed).
Once a break or bounce spot has been identified (according to the trader’s tools), then the trader can wait for price to reach that particular zone and wait for price to either break or bounce of that particular support or resistance level.
1) A break is when price pushes through the support and resistance. This is called a breakout trade and price then has enough momentum to break through that zone.
2) A bounce is when price does not push through the support and resistance. In this case price does not have sufficient momentum to break and price then “respects” the zone.
In our trading room we are on the lookout for break-out trade setups (strikes) and the first pullback after breakout (boomerang) in the Forex market. This means:
1) Strike = break trade
2) Boomerang = bounce trade
A bounce scenario could mean that price is either making a small retracement, big retracement or reversal. In case of a small retracement, price might still break through the support and resistance a little way later. Big tops and bottoms and Fibonacci levels are usually not broken without at least some “respect” for these levels (price will not go through the level without stopping).
A bounce trade can be entered via various methods.
A trader attempts to trade directly at the expected support or resistance zone.
Example: Let’s say that you are looking at a particular Fibonacci level or top as a resistance. Having an entry order directly at that level is one way of trading an expected bounce at that S&R.
Advantage: earliest entry.
Risk: price continuing without stopping at level.
Problem: stop loss placement as price can overextend on smaller time frames through S&R area – even if it’s slightly.
2) CONFIRMATION OF BOUNCE:
A trader waits for a confirmation of price to stop at the expected support or resistance zone.
Example: Let’s say that you are looking at a particular Fibonacci level or top as a resistance. Waiting for a candle stick pattern at the expected S&R is a confirmation method.
Advantage: price is stopping at expected level and clear stop loss level is known.
Risk: price could move away from S&R (substantially) before confirmation takes place.
Problem: could be a late entry, especially if trade is taken against a prevailing trend.
3) BREAKOUT AFTER BOUNCE:
more information in the next paragraph. This is very similar to Tim’s article on 123 reversals. One of the differences, I think, is the usage of fractals.
BOUNCE USING FRACTALS
Another way to trade the bounce trade is by using fractals. Here is how the process would be:
1) A Forex trader can anticipate a certain S&R to be important
2) Wait for price to stop at or close to that level and make a fractal
3) Wait for price to move away from that S&R
4) Wait for price to form a fractal at the opposite side
5) Wait for a break of that opposite fractal
What does this mean?
Basically, by letting price stop, reverse, stop, and reverse, the Forex trader now has 2 lines in the sand. One is at the expected S&R. The other is at the opposite side. A break above or below either of these 2 levels then constitutes the likely winner.
There is an uptrend on the 4 hour chart. Price stops at the S&R (for instance Fibonacci retracement). Price moves down 40 pips away from it and forms a fractal on top of price on the 4 hour chart. Price then bounces back up again with the trend but fails to breakout above the resistance fractal. At this point there are 2 fractals. A break above the fractal constitutes a break-out. A break below the fractal means a “bounce break-out” (a breakout in opposite direction after a bounce).
Via this method, the Forex trader translates a bounce trade into a breakout. The Forex trader can also use the BPC method as well: break, pullback and continuation. The Fractal Indicator helps identify clear levels, check out the article with more information on the Fractal here. Also, depending on the time frame, it is a good idea to go a few pips above or below a fractal (6-20).
It is important to realize that the odds of success are greatest when trading the bounce either:
a) during a very strong S&R and a trader is attempting to catch a strong reversal
b) during a trend and a trader is attempting to identify the S&R for trend continuation
This is a Forex concept or method, not a Forex system, which means there are no particular statistics. It would be the same as asking how successful are break-outs, or trading with the trend? The sample size is huge and depends on too many variables. The idea could be a building block though for a detail trading strategy (read more here about creating Forex strategies). This Forex concept is a discretionary method of trading and must be used along with other tools and analysis, specifically multiple time frame analysis.
Do you like trading bounces? Or do you prefer break-outs? How to you trade bounces? Let us know down below, thanks!
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