Just in case you are not aware…. there are some very interesting developments around the corner.
Are you fully prepared? If not then make sure to read this post very carefully and accurately.
This analysis is a sizzler. And it will provide you with a great guide what to expect in the near future.
Our focus for today’s article is going to be on…. the AUD and NZD versus the EUR, GBP and USD!!
Also be aware that later today there will be a FOMC announcement and press conference. Be careful with that around the corner.
Before I start, for those who would like to know more about the majors and a few Euro crosses, please take a look at these links.
Let us see what effect FOMC could bring to the AUDUSD later in the day. But… from a technical point of view I see the following facts:
1) AUDUSD downtrend
2) AUDUSD massive down side momentum
3) Recently made strong correction to the upside
The big questions are:
Will we see a break and continue of the down trend?
If yes, how far and how deep?
Will we see a bigger correction to the downside?
If yes, how far can we correct and has the trend changed?
In my opinion, I am currently biased to expecting a bigger upside correction and then a downside continuation from the next resistance level. My main components are:
2) strong correction up on 4 hour / day chart
3) 618 Fib bounce on 4 hour chart
4) Could be in a wave 4 now on day chart
5) Bullish weekly candle
4) AO maybe turning for a wave 4 correction
6) 5 waves within wave 3 completed on day chart
I am realistic enough to know that:
a) Any upside is only a corrective part of the bigger down trend.
b) The upside correction might not happen and we could see down side continuation
Here is how I am going to tackle that dilemma:
1) We just broke of the recent downside (red trend line)
2) I am going to keep en eye out on the top (dark red) and bottom (green) trend lines
3) A break of either would mean for the upside correction or downside continuation
Downside targets are the 0.9230-0.9250 area and the 0.9150 price level (382 Fib of upmove).
Upside targets are highly dangerous as the downtrend on the day chart is still in play. Key resistance levels will be the -0.272 target (green box), the 382 Fib (purple) and the key top (purple).
What is your plan for the AUDUSD? Please write down your ideas of this currency down in the comment section below. Or if you agree with me, just write a quick comment down below saying “agree”. Thanks!!
The GBPNZD has a very interesting week chart. The up trend on all of the EUR and GBP versus AUD and NZD crosses have been great trading, of course… but the questions beg:
How far can thy go?
The GBPNZD weekly chart is certainly showing that the currency could have reached an outer limit of its upside capabilities:
1) The currency is at 2 weekly trend lines (red and orange)
2) The currency is hitting weekly resistance levels (dark red)
In response to that key area, the weekly candle has a pretty big wick with a bearish close, which is a first real bearish candle since mid April…. Could this mean reversal?
It is too soon to tell, but definitely could be. I am keeping an eye on last week’s low to see if the breaks can break this key support.
The EURNZD has a very similar chart as the GBPNZD, just like the EURAUD looks very similar to the GBPAUD…. Here is the GBPAUD analysis:
The GBPAUD looks a bit different than the GBPNZD… The GA actually broke out of the similar resistances the GA had and has a made an even bigger run to the upside than the GA.
Here too however the weekly chart has a pretty big wick on the top so a retracement is always possible. Here too last week’s candle high and low very important for this currency pair.
There is also a weekly Fib mentioned on the chart… you can see a 236 Fib bounce which went straight to target. Maybe, just maybe, the GBPAUD could make a down move and then one more upside to the 382 at 1.88? That is my main analysis at the moment but let us see!
In any case, we have had great trading on these EURAUD and GBPAUD crosses in our trading room… just amazing. Join our trading room to see how we do it!! Or join our mentoring program and automatically receive membership to our trading room.
Here are some links you want to check out:
As always, thanks so much for reading and for sharing the article!!!
Latest posts by Chris Svorcik (see all)
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