A Technical Analysis and Trade Setup

Sophia Todorova is the host of the live trading room for the London session.She has a background in teaching and psychology, and as such relishes the idea of assisting new traders on their journey to Forex trading success. Technical Analysis is her passion. The charts speak, and she listens. To Trade Live with Sophia Join Winners Edge Trading Premium Services.

If you are as passionate about trading as I am, then you may have found yourself perusing through charts on the weekends, and feeling slightly guilty about it :) . I think it might not be too bad, as long as you keep things in perspective.  Anyway, I thought I’d let you, our faithful readers know that there is the possibility of a great trading opportunity setting up on the gbpnzd currency pair. I know that this is one of the exotic pairs that many traders tend to overlook. However, I have traded this in the past and it does move an awful lot. It seems I am seeing reversals all over the charts lately, and that is what I think might be setting up on the gbpnzd daily timeframe.

As this is a daily timeframe, the setup might take some time to work out. This is why I think that it is good to bring it to your attention over the weekend, so that you can watch it during the coming week as a means of finding some good trade setups.

By taking a look at the daily chart below, you will see that there was a break above the down-sloping trendline. Price went up to 2.2020 to test a counter-trendline located there. The original resistance zone at 2.1750 got broken. It was a hard feat accomplishing this, and that is evidenced by the numerous double tops/spikes in the 2.1750 region. At the close of the market on Friday, my charts register a rate of 2.1066 against the main down trendline. A look to the left will reveal what appears to be the left shoulder of the possible bullish reversal.

Trading Strategy

 

 

Look out for trendline breaks on the hrly and 15 minute timeframes, and look to go long at after retests. I’d like to repeat that this might take some time to complete its setup, as the daily trendline might get tested more than once. Therefore, when entering on the 1 hr and 15 minute charts, make sure that you take some profit as soon as you have a reasonable amount of pips, while possibly allowing a portion to run to 2.1650, where you would exit ahead of the tremendous resistance ahead. This is marked by the green horizontal line. If this setup works out there is more than 600 pips to be had. Stop-losses will depend on entry, so make sure that you use well-placed stops out of the normal swings of the market, while at the same time watching your position sizing.

Thank you for taking the time to read this article. I encourage you to post your comments and opinions as I look forward to discussing the setup, regardless of your take on it. Have a great weekend, and see you all next week, as we resume this very exciting  job of ours :)

This analysis aims at providing assistance to the forex trading community here at Winners Edge Trading, thereby helping them to make informed trading decisions.

Anotherpair worth taking a look at is the usdcad. I posted this article on Friday: http://www.winnersedgetrading.com/usdcad-technical-analysis-trade-setup/

If you are interested in trading this with me, it is a good idea to follow me on twitter, since I am able to give quick updates there, and you will be able to get them instantly.

Other useful blogs:

Forex Crunch: Indicators- 3 Reasons Why They Will Hurt Your Trading

 The GeekKnows- Daily commentary on eurusd

One other free trading tool I recommend is Currensee . It can be a useful tool to be able to see how other professional traders are doing.

  • http://twitter.com/FXstorm Sophia Smith

    Hi Iman, I appreciate your comments regarding your take on the setup. I agree that it might test 2.0932. Drawing my fibs from the daily low of 2.0322 to 2.2020, I have noticed that the .618 extension level is at 20971, to which Friday's down move went very close. As this is a daily timeframe, your target of 2.0932, although it is 134 pips below it's current price, might still get tested even if the bounce takes place as I suggested. Also, this pair is quite volatile, and tends to cover a lot of pips in its swings. Thanks again, and all the best for the coming trading week :)

  • Iman

    Oh i forgot to say by my prediction if the pair goes down it goes to the 2.0932 ( At least) but you suggested it goes up ,
    Till that time
    Iman

  • http://imifx.mihanblog.com Iman Ahmadi

    Hi Sophia,
    Thank you very much for your suggestion, but i think if you consider this pair in H1 an draw fibonacci from 2.1810 on 9th of June to the level 2.1305 on 10th of June ,so we can see better the retracement to 61.8% on 11th of June and now it gets back to the 100% level .
    Another way tht i use for prediction :
    (2.1810-2.1305)=0.0505 * .618 = 0.0312 – 2.1615 = 2.1302
    This level that the pair goes down for T/P1 and after that we have to wait for breaking the level and keep on

    Anyway,again i would like to appreciate for you valuable trding suggestion.
    iman

  • http://twitter.com/FXstorm Sophia Smith

    Hi jasvinder, there is indeed a mistake! Thanks for pointing it out ;) I meant to say 2.2020. Thanks again, and enjoy your weekend :)

  • jasvinder

    “Price went up to test 2.0230″- Is there a mistake here.

  • http://twitter.com/FXstorm Sophia Smith

    Thank you Derek:) I appreciate it, and am glad you like the articles. I too am anxious to see how the setup plays out during the week. Enjoy the rest of your weekend :)

  • Derek

    Great plan Sophia! I always love reading your market insight. You truly make the charts come alive. I will be watching closely to see how this plays out.